Articles for Financial Advisors

Nest Egg Withdrawal Rates

Nest Egg Withdrawal Rates

Suppose you had a client with a $1 million nest egg (½ stocks and ½ bonds) who began taking withdrawals at age 65 at the beginning of 1973. Depending on the inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate, the client would have been broke before age 77 (January 1977) if the withdrawal rate had been 7–8% per year; the entire nest egg would not have been wiped out until age 89 (January 1997) if the rate had been 5% (age 82–83 at a 6% rate). However, if the inflation-adjusted rate had been just 4% per year (i.e., $40K the 1st year and then $41.2K the 2nd year, etc.), the nest egg would have been worth $2.1 million when the client reached age 101. 

 
The three tables below, based on a 2009 analysis from Financeware and BlackRock (using Monte Carlo simulation), show how long assets will last depending on the period (20–30 years), the stock/bond mix (20–100% for stocks), and the inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate (1–7% per year), assuming a constant annual inflation rate of 3%.
 

20 Years of Withdrawals: Likelihood of Success

Stock/Bond Allocation (%)

Rate*

20/80

40/60

60/40

80/20

1–3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

4%

99

100

98

97

5%

93

94

91

88

6%

65

74

74

73

* Annual inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate
 

25 Years of Withdrawals: Likelihood of Success

Stock/Bond Allocation (%)

Rate*

20/80

40/60

60/40

80/20

1–2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

3%

100

100

100

98

4%

95

95

94

90

5%

68

75

77

75

6%

33

46

54

57

* Annual inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate
 

25 Years of Withdrawals: Likelihood of Success

Stock/Bond Allocation (%)

Rate*

20/80

40/60

60/40

80/20

1–2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

3%

98

98

98

96

4%

83

87

87

84

5%

46

58

63

64

6%

15

29

40

45

* Annual inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate
 

 

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