Articles for Financial Advisors

Why You Should Use A Mutual Fund

Why You Should Use A Mutual Fund

There are a number of reasons why the vast majority of investors should use mutual funds, particularly when it comes to investing in stocks. One reason you should use a mutual fund is because of its management. These are the folks that decide what to buy and sell and when. Mutual funds can provide the objectivity individuals lack. The reason why you should not try to manage your own stock portfolio is similar to the reason why doctors are not supposed to operate on members of their immediate family.

 

Not only do mutual funds have greater objectivity than individual investors, they also have resources and talent that you and I do not have—and they are less likely to be tricked by market hype. Relying on the “daily noise” of the markets (which includes recommendations by brokerage firms) has not been a good strategy. As the section below shows, Wall Street is heavily biased when it comes to making stock recommendations. Stock Study #1 According to FactSet Research Systems, only 3% of all U.S. listed stocks were considered “sells” as of November 2011.

 

Stock Study #1

According to FactSet Research Systems, only 3% of all U.S. listed stocks were considered “sells” as of November 2011.
 

Analysts Ratings for U.S.-Listed Companies

 

# of Recommendations

% of Total

Buy

13,339

45%

Overweight

2,606

9%

Hold

12,312

42%

Underweight

398

15%

Sell

814

3%

In theory, the ratio of buy to sell ratings should be roughly 50/50. However, this has likely never been the case. In the late 1990s, the ratio was 100+ buys for every sell. During this time, Merrill Lynch had buy ratings on 940 stocks and sell ratings on just seven; Salomon Smith Barney: 856 buy ratings and four sells; Morgan Stanley Dean Witter: 670 buys and zero sells.
 

Stock Study #2

According to a Wall Street Journal article (February 2012), historical evidence shows stocks with lots of “buys” from analysts do no better than the broad market, on average. Perhaps this is because analysts give 11 times as many “outperform” or “buy” recommendations than they do “underperform.” New research suggests there may be a way to discern which “buys” are worth heeding.

Analysts S&P 500 Recommendations

Buy/Outperform

Hold

Underperform/Sell

5,800

4,480

530

To form their recommendations, analysts often begin with “discounted-cash-flow” analysis, which uses forecasts of revenues, margins and other factors to determine a fair share price for investors to pay today. Some factors are difficult to measure (i.e., riskiness) while others are impossible to know (i.e., distant growth rates); subtle changes in assumptions can produce sharply different results.
 
The S&P 500 and Dow have had similar returns since the 1950s (when the S&P began), even though the Dow is made up of just 30 stocks while the S&P has 500 stocks in its index. To appreciate the long-term benefits of the U.S. stock market, review the section below.
 

Dow 1,339,411

The Dow was launched on May 26, 1896 as a “price-only” index that does not capture (include) the dividend income of the underlying companies. According to finance professor Statman of Santa Clara University, with dividends reinvested along the way, from its May 1896 inception to March 2012, the Dow would have closed at 1,339,411 (not 13,000). This number is more than 100 times a closing price of 13,000.
 
The numbers become quite different when looked at from another perspective. Using a March 2012 closing price of 13,000 (meaning dividends have been excluded), if inflation is factored in, the Dow would have closed at 456 (> 96% below its value of 13,000). From the Dow’s 1896 inception to March 2012, if you factor in inflation and dividends, the close would have been 46,986.
 

 

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