Articles for Financial Advisors

Perfect vs. Terrible Market Timing

Perfect vs. Terrible Market Timing

Consider four hypothetical investors who each invested $10,000 a year for 20 years. Investor #1 has perfect timing—investing $10,000 when the market is at its lowest point each year; Investor #2 invests on the first trading day each year; Investor #3 invests at the market’s highest level each year; and Investor #4 avoids the S&P and invests $10,000 at the beginning of each year in T-bills. The table below shows the return each investor would have experiencing by averaging all 20-year period returns from 1926-2010.

 

$10,000 invested each year for 20 years

[all 20-year periods from 1926-2010]

Investor

Average Return

#1: perfect timing each year

$921,000

#2: $10,000 invested 1st day each year

$856,000

#3: worst timing each year

$746,000

#4: no stocks (S&P 500), 100% in T-bills

$332,000

 

 

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