Articles for Financial Advisors

Housing Prices Vs. REITs

Housing Prices Vs. REITs

FHFA is the federal agency regulating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and 12 Federal Home Loan Banks. The index below represents home sales throughout the U.S. NAREIT is a real estate investment trust trade group. The index is comprised of all publicly traded equity REITs in the U.S. The largest real estate mutual fund oversees $6 billion. 

 

Home Prices vs. REITs

 

FHFA Index

REIT Index

REITs > Homes

1991

2.9%

35.7%

✓  

1992

2.2%

14.6%

✓  

1993

2.4%

19.6%

✓  

1994

1.3%

3.2%

✓  

1995

4.6%

15.3%

✓  

1996

2.7%

35.3%

✓  

1997

4.6%

20.3%

✓  

1998

5.0%

-17.5%

 

1999

4.9%

-4.6%

 

2000

7.2%

26.4%

✓  

2001

7.3%

13.9%

✓  

2002

6.9%

3.8%

 

2003

7.0%

37.1%

✓  

2004

10.4%

31.6%

✓  

2005

11.1%

12.2%

✓  

2006

4.7%

35.1%

✓  

2007

-0.4%

-15.7%

 

2008

-4.9%

-37.7%

 

2009

-4.3%

28.0%

✓  

2010

-1.3%

28.0%

✓  

2011

-2.4%

8.3%

✓  

Average return

3.3%

14.2%

 

# of losing years

5 out of 21

4 out of 20

 

Average losing year

-2.7%

-18.9%

 

The drop in real estate home prices since 2006 may be greater than the figures shown above. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 major cities, housing prices peaked during 2006. From the end of 2006 to the end of 2011, home prices dropped 33%, (vs. a loss of 13% using FHFA numbers for 2007-2011).
 
During most periods, equity REITs outperformed residential real estate—especially if you factor in costs of ownership (e.g., 7% selling commission and closing cost, 1–2% a year in property taxes, plus 1–2% a year in repairs and replacements plus some dollar amount for maintenance and property management if the home is rented out). The costs of home ownership are not reflected in the FHFA Index figures above.
 
The three types of REITs are equity, mortgage, and hybrid. Equity REITs are companies that own and operate income-generating real estate; mortgage REITs invest in mortgages, while hybrid REITs own real estate and mortgages. Over 160 REITs are publicly traded (130 of which are equity REITs). From 1976–2010, the return correlation between equity REITs and the S&P 500 ranged from 25% to 80%; the correlation between REITs and long-term government bonds has ranged from -20% to 40%. 
 
Viewing the returns from 2002–2011, it is easy to see adding a well-diversified real estate fund can be beneficial when it comes to risk-adjusted returns. As shown below, there is little consistency between REIT, stock, and bond returns. 
 

Annual Return Differences:

U.S. Stocks vs. Med-Term Bonds vs. REITs  [2002–2011]

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

U.S. Stocks

-21%

32%

12%

6%

15%

6%

-37%

29%

15%

2%

U.S. Bonds

10%

4%

3%

2%

4%

7%

5%

5%

6%

8%

REITs

4%

36%

33%

14%

36%

-18%

-39%

28%

28%

8%

 

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