Forecasting S&P 500 Returns
Over the 14-year period 2000-2013, the average forecaster has usually been a poor predictor as to what the S&P 500 actually returned for the calendar year, according to Birinyi Associates (see table).
S&P 500: Average Forecaster vs. Actual Return
|
Year |
Forecast |
Actual |
|
Year |
Forecast |
Actual |
|
2000 |
4% |
-9% |
|
2007 |
10% |
5% |
|
2001 |
21% |
-12% |
|
2008 |
11% |
-37% |
|
2002 |
11% |
-22% |
|
2009 |
20% |
26% |
|
2003 |
13% |
29% |
|
2010 |
10% |
15% |
|
2004 |
6% |
11% |
|
2011 |
9% |
2% |
|
2005 |
3% |
5% |
|
2012 |
8% |
16% |
|
2006 |
9% |
16% |
|
2013 |
9% |
32% |
Source: Birinyi Associates